Preview

Proceedings of the Voronezh State University of Engineering Technologies

Advanced search

Methods and approaches to prediction in the meat industry

https://doi.org/10.20914/2310-1202-2016-4-261-267

Abstract

The modern stage of the agro-industrial complex is characterized by an increasing complexity, intensification of technological processes of complex processing of materials of animal origin also the need for a systematic analysis of the variety of determining factors and relationships between them, complexity of the objective function of product quality and severe restrictions on technological regimes. One of the main tasks that face the employees of the enterprises of the agro-industrial complex, which are engaged in processing biotechnological raw materials, is the further organizational improvement of work at all stages of the food chain, besides an increase in the production volume. The meat industry as a part of the agro-industrial complex has to use the biological raw materials with maximum efficiency, while reducing and even eliminating losses at all stages of processing; rationally use raw material when selecting a type of processing products; steadily increase quality, biological and food value of products; broaden the assortment of manufactured products in order to satisfy increasing consumer requirements and extend the market for their realization in the conditions of uncertainty of external environment, due to the uneven receipt of raw materials, variations in its properties and parameters, limited time sales and fluctuations in demand for products. The challenges facing the meat industry cannot be solved without changes to the strategy for scientific and technological development of the industry. To achieve these tasks, it is necessary to use the prediction as a method of constant improvement of all technological processes and their performance under the rational and optimal regimes, while constantly controlling quality of raw material, semi-prepared products and finished products at all stages of the technological processing by the physico-chemical, physico-mechanical (rheological), microbiological and organoleptic methods. The paper presents the man methods and approaches to prediction in the meat industry.

About the Authors

A. B. Lisitsyn
The V.M. Gorbatov All-Russian Meat Research Institute
Russian Federation

academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, doctor of technical sciences, professor, Director, 

Talalikhina str., 26, Moscow, 109316



M. A. Nikitina
The V.M. Gorbatov All-Russian Meat Research Institute
Russian Federation

candidate of technical sciences, docent, leading scientific worker, the Heard of the Direction of Information Technologies of the Center of Economic and Analytical Research and Information Technologies, 

Talalikhina str., 26, Moscow, 109316



A. N. Zakharov
The V.M. Gorbatov All-Russian Meat Research Institute
Russian Federation

candidate of technical sciences, senior scientific worker, Deputy Director for Economic Relations and Marketing, 

Talalikhina str., 26, Moscow, 109316



E. O. Scherbinina
The V.M. Gorbatov All-Russian Meat Research Institute
Russian Federation

graduate student, senior scientific worker of the Center of Economic and Analytical Research and Information Technologies, 

Talalikhina str., 26, Moscow, 109316



References

1. 1 Borodin A. V. Managing quality and safety of fermented meat products in the manufacturing process. Myasnye tekhnologii [Meat technology]. 2015. no. 12. pp. 54-57. (in Russian).

2. 2 Ivashkin Yu. A., Protopopov I.I., Borodin A.V. et al. Modelirovanie proizvodstvennykh protsessov myasnoi i molochnoi promyshlennosti. [Modeling of the production processes in meat and dairy industry]. Moscow, Agropromizdat Publ., 1987, 256 p.

3. 3 Svetunkov I. S, Svetunkov S.G. Modeli i metody [Models and methods: textbook and laboratory manual for the academic bachelor degree course]. Vol. 2. Moscow, Uright Publishing House, 2015, 447 p.

4. 4 Finn V.K. Iskusstvennyi intellekt. Metodologiya, primeneniya, filosofiya [Artificial intelligence. Metho-dology, application, philosophy]. Moscow, Krasand Publ., 2011, 448 p.

5. 5 Hines A., Bishop P. Thinking about the future: Guidelines for strategic foresight (2nd edition). Houston, TX: Hinesight, 2015.

6. 6 Svodnaya tablitsa mental'nykh deistvii i metodov. Summary table of the mental activities and methods. Available at: http://www.system-thinking.ru/2009/11/mam-tabl/ (accessed 10.08.2016).

7. 7 Ivashkin Yu. A. Mul'tiagentnoe modelirovanie v imitatsionnoi sisteme SIMPLEX3. [Multiagent modeling in the simulation system SIMPLEX3: a training manual]. Moscow, Laboratoriya znaniy Publ., 2016, 350 p.

8. 8 Schmidt B. The Art of Modelling and Simulation. SCS-Europe BVBA. Chent: Belgium, 2001. 480 p.

9. 9 Schmidt B. Die Modellierung menschlichen Verhaltes. SCS-Europe BVBA. Chent: Belgium, 2000. 104 p.

10. 10 Ivashkin Yu. A. Agentnye tekhnologii i mul'tiagentnoe modelirovanie sistem [Agent technologies and multi-agent modeling of systems]. Moscow, MFTI Publ., 2013, 268 p.

11. 11Kosoy V.D., Vinogradov Ya. I., Malyshev A.D. Inzhenernaya reologiya biotekhnologicheskikh sred [Engineering rheology of the biotechnological media]. St. Petersburg, GIORD Publ., 2005, 648 p.

12. 12Dunchenko N.I., Magomedov M.D., Rybin A.V. Upravlenie kachestvom v otraslyakh pishchevoi promyshlennosti [Quality Management in the food industry: Training in the expedient]. Moscow, Publishing and traiding Corporation «Dashkov and Ko», 2012, 212 p.

13. 13Lisitsyn A.B., Nikitina M.A., Zakharov A.N., Sus E.B., Nasonova V.V., Lebedeva L.I. Prediction of meat product quality by the mathematical programming methods. Theory and practice of meat processing. 2016; 1(1):75-90. (In Russ.) DOI:10.21323/2114-441X-2016-1-75-90

14. 14Box G.E. et al. [Time series analysis: forecasting and control]. John Wiley&Sons, 2015.

15. 15Granger C.W., Newbold P. [Forecasting economic time series]. Academic Press, 2014.

16. 16Daganzo C. [Multinominal probit: the theory and its application to demand forecasting]. Elsevier, 2014.

17. 17Granger C.W. [Forecasting in business and economics]. Academic Press, 2014.

18. 18Vosen S., Schmidt T. [Forecasting private consumption: survey-based indicators vs. Google trends]. Journal of Forecasting. 2011. Vol. 30. no. 6, pp. 565-578.

19. 19Protopopov I.I., Durgaryan I.S., Pashenko F.E. Modelirovanie biotekhnologicheskikh sistem po statisticheskim kriteriyam [Modeling of biotechnological systems on statistical criteria]. Moscow, MSUAB Publ., 2003, 58 p.

20. 20Krasulya O.N., Nikolaeva S.V., Tokarev A.V. Modelirovanie retseptur pishchevykh produktov i tekhnologii ikh proizvodstva [The modeling formulations of food and their production technologies: a training manual]. St. Petersburg, GIORD Publ., 2015, 320 p.


Review

For citations:


Lisitsyn A.B., Nikitina M.A., Zakharov A.N., Scherbinina E.O. Methods and approaches to prediction in the meat industry. Proceedings of the Voronezh State University of Engineering Technologies. 2016;(4):261-267. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.20914/2310-1202-2016-4-261-267

Views: 3252


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.


ISSN 2226-910X (Print)
ISSN 2310-1202 (Online)