Mathematical modeling of regional development indicators in a conceptual model for assessing the impact of the external environment on the regional socio-economic system

Abstract

In the article the directions of expansion of the complex approach to the assessment of the influence of the external environment on the regional socio-economic system are considered. The authors propose an approach based on mathematical modeling of the main indicators of the development of the region. Empirical data for the development of models has become the departmental expenditure structure of the Bryansk region of the Department of Economic Development and the indicators presented for the development of the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period until 2019. When forming a model of indicators of socio-economic development of the region, approximating functions were obtained, limited by the range of specified values of departmental expenditures of the budget of the Bryansk region for 2012-2019. And acting as an interpolating relationship. For the optimal selection of the parameters of the equations, the method of least squares was used. Practical implementation of the conceptual model for assessing the impact of the external environment on the regional socio-economic system determines the need for its automation. The information advisory system developed on the basis of the presented model will allow to automate the process of supporting the adoption of the management decision. The obtained model for assessing the influence of the external environment on the regional socio-economic system is an information and analytical system for monitoring the regional situation as the basis for subsequent management decisions.