Analysis of the dynamics and trends of the Voronezh region GRP changes on the basis of the first order autoregressive model

Abstract

The article considers the possibilities of using the first-order autoregressive model for analyzing the dynamics and forecasting of the main indicator of the level of development of the regional economy - gross regional product (GRP). The influence of the investment factor is described, the existing approaches to this problem are considered on the example of several publications of recent years. The specifics of the mutual influence of the gross regional product and investment volumes are analyzed, the importance of the long-term impact of investments on the dynamics of the region's economic indicators is noted. The properties of autoregressive models are described, the possibilities of using the first-order autoregressive model for analyzing the dynamics and forecasting of the gross regional product of the Voronezh region are considered, taking into account the factor of investment in fixed assets. Based on the statistical data for 2000-2016. autoregression models are constructed using the instrumental variables method to overcome the multicollinearity inherent in such models. Various approaches to constructing an autoregressive model are analyzed, and conclusions are drawn about the quality of the models obtained. The proposed model of autoregression is characterized by high quality and adequacy indicators, with its help a point and interval GRP is compiled. On the basis of the obtained model, the values of short-term and long-term investment multipliers are determined. The received values of multipliers once again confirm the importance of investment policy for the regional economy and allow quantifying the effect of invested funds. The use of this model can be useful both within the descriptive and normative approach in modeling the regional economy.