The article formulates the problem of the lack of pectin production in the country, which affects the food security of Russia. The relevance and significance of this problem, as well as the feasibility of creating a pectin production line in the territory of the Voronezh Region are considered. Various technologies for the production of pectin are given, but the most progressive is the method of electro-membrane processing of technological media. Further, the work presents the production and financial plan of the projected enterprise for the production of pectin and based on its results, forward-looking financial statements are formed. To assess the probability of bankruptcy of an enterprise, it is necessary to create an adapted methodology for assessing the risk of bankruptcy. On the basis of a sample of enterprises whose activities are related to the production of thickeners and gelling agents, some of which are actual bankrupts, a modified Suyazova model is created. economic profitability indicators, current liquidity ratio, return on equity, stock turnover ratio, asset turnover and product sales profitability across all enterprises in the last three years of the company's activity were calculated. On the basis of the calculations made, a new method was obtained, defining 4 possible probabilities of bankruptcy: high, medium, low and minimal. The technique was tested on the same enterprises that were used to create it. Approbation of the methodology showed that in the year of bankruptcy all bankrupt enterprises were classified as bankrupt, and the existing ones were recognized as valid. The model also predicts the average and high probability of bankruptcy two years before the onset of insolvency. This allows us to conclude that the predictive power of the proposed methodology is high. The created model predicts minimal bankruptcy risk for the projected enterprise. Consequently, the creation of pectin production is recognized as expedient and the development of this enterprise must continue.

pectin, food security, bankruptcy risk, forecasting, food, import substitution

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